METEOROLOGIST U Win Naing predicted at 1 pm on 18 May that there is likelihood of a cyclone forming near the Tamil Nadu coast in the southwest Bay of Bengal on 20 May, based on findings from ECMWF charts.

He analyzed that the probability of the cyclone would drop to 90 per cent on 21 May and further decrease to 80 per cent on 23 May.

U Win Naing also stated that, according to ECMWF chart predictions, there is no chance of forming a cyclone in the southwest Bay of Bengal. Instead, it is likely to remain a low-pressure area, which could develop into a system capable of advancing the southwest monsoon into central and upper Myanmar.

Similarly, the ECMWF-AI forecast, along with the GFS, GEFS, and GEPS models, predicts that a low-pressure area, storm, or cyclonic storm could develop in the middle-eastern and northern Bay of Bengal starting on 26 May. However, he noted that this is a long-term forecast and requires further confirmation.

According to the weather forecast, the southwest monsoon has already reached the delta regions, with thunderstorms likely to continue in southern Myanmar, including the Bago, Ayeyawady, Yangon, and Taninthayi regions, as well as Mon and Kayin states. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in all other states and regions only after 23 May.

Htun Htun/TH

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